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Table 1 Relative impact of vaccination strategies on the predicted cumulative number of varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) cases (in the period 2004–2060) by population scenario

From: Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany – a mathematical modelling study

  Varicella cases
(differences in %a)
HZ cases
(differences in %a)
Stationary population
 Varicella vaccinationb –72.55% +11.15%
 Varicella + HZ (current live) vaccinationc –72.57% +9.90%
 Varicella + HZ (new subunit) vaccinationc –72.63% +6.15%
Projected population
 Varicella vaccinationb –69.70% +10.84%
 Varicella + HZ (current live) vaccinationc –69.72% +9.52%
 Varicella + HZ (new subunit) vaccinationc –69.80% +5.18%
Projected population with increased immigration
 Varicella vaccinationb –68.90% +10.94%
 Varicella + HZ (current live) vaccinationc –68.92% +9.60%
 Varicella + HZ (new subunit) vaccinationc –69.01% +5.29%
  1. aCompared to scenario without varicella and HZ vaccination
  2. bVaccination coverage 86.9%/64.1% (2004–2010 as observed)
  3. cVaccination coverage 20%