Fig. 2

The hidden burden of measles disease. a Point estimates of the hospitalization rate at different distances from the Woliso hospital (in gray) and results from the negative binomial regression (mean in dark red and 95% CI in light red); estimates of the average hospitalization rate in the area as obtained with the transmission model are shown in blue (solid line represents the mean, shaded area represents 95% CI). b average CFR among hospital admitted cases across different sites (red diamonds); vertical bars represent 95% CI as obtained by exact binomial test. c Estimates of the proportion of untreated and missed severe cases over distance (diamonds represent the mean estimates; vertical bars represent 95% CI). d Estimates of the overall measles case fatality rate at different distances from the hospital; CFR is obtained as the fraction of estimated deaths over the estimated number of measles infections across different sites (diamonds represent the mean estimates; vertical bars represent 95% CI). e Estimated percentage of averted deaths due to hospital treatment as obtained by considering all severe cases as counterfactual deaths that would have occurred in the absence of adequate treatment (diamonds represent the mean estimates; vertical bars represent 95% CI). f Cumulative number of cases between 2013 and 2017 stratified in observed hospital admissions, estimated severe cases, missed untreated cases, overall potential deaths computed by assuming that all severe untreated cases died, and averted deaths due to hospital treatment (vertical bars represent 95% CI)