Table 1 Landmark model of cumulative risks of developing islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes
Outcome | Landmark age | Risk by 20 years of age | Risk after 6 years of follow-up | Risk after 12 years of follow-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Any autoantibody | From birth | 8.0% (6.8–9.2%) | 5.3% (4.4–6.2%) | 7.0% (5.9–8.0%) |
From 1.5 years | 6.7% (5.5–7.8%) | 4.2% (3.3–5.0%) | 5.8% (4.8–6.9%) | |
From 3.5 years | 4.7% (3.7–5.8%) | 2.9% (2.2–3.7%) | 4.4% (3.4–5.3%) | |
From 6.5 years | 2.7% (1.9–3.6%) | 1.8% (1.1–2.4%) | 2.7% (1.9–3.6%) | |
From 9.5 years | 2.0% (1.2–2.8%) | 1.6% (0.9–2.3%) | 2.0% (1.2–2.8%) | |
From 12.5 years | 1.0% (0.4–1.7%) | 1.0% (0.4–1.7%) | 2.2% (0.4–4.0%) | |
Multiple autoantibodies | From birth | 6.3% (5.2–7.3%) | 4.7% (3.8–5.6%) | 5.8% (4.8–6.8%) |
From 1.5 years | 4.8% (3.9–5.8%) | 3.7% (2.9–4.4%) | 4.5% (3.6–5.4%) | |
From 3.5 years | 3.3% (2.5–4.2%) | 2.4% (1.7–3.0%) | 3.1% (2.3–3.9%) | |
From 6.5 years | 1.6% (1.0–2.3%) | 1.2% (0.7–1.8%) | 1.6% (1.0–2.3%) | |
From 9.5 years | 0.9% (0.4–1.4%) | 0.7% (0.2–1.1%) | 0.9% (0.4–1.4%) | |
From 12.5 years | 0.4% (0–0.9%) | 0.4% (0–0.9%) | 1.1% (0–2.3%) | |
Type 1 diabetes | From birth | 6.2% (5.0–7.3%) | 1.4% (0.9–1.9%) | 3.7% (2.9–4.5%) |
From 1.5 years | 5.9% (4.8–7.1%) | 1.6% (1.1–2.2%) | 4.2% (3.3–5.0%) | |
From 3.5 years | 5.4% (4.3–6.5%) | 1.8% (1.2–2.3%) | 4.2% (3.3–5.1%) | |
From 6.5 years | 4.7% (3.7–5.8%) | 2.4% (1.7–3.1%) | 4.5% (3.5–5.5%) | |
From 9.5 years | 3.7% (2.7–4.7%) | 2.5% (1.7–3.2%) | 3.7% (2.7–4.7%) | |
From 12.5 years | 2.4% (1.5–3.3%) | 2.1% (1.3–2.9%) | 2.8% (1.6–4.0%) | |
Type 1 diabetes, if islet antibody positive | From 1.5 years | 83.6% (56.4–93.8%) | 45.6% (22.7–61.7%) | 54.3% (30.0–70.2%) |
From 3.5 years | 84.3% (69.7–91.9%) | 44.4% (30.4–55.6%) | 70.7% (56.2–80.4%) | |
From 6.5 years | 76.2% (62.1–85.0%) | 44.0% (32.2–53.8%) | 71.3% (57.8–80.5%) | |
From 9.5 years | 64.1% (47.9–75.3%) | 42.2% (29.0–53.0%) | 64.1% (47.9–75.3%) | |
From 12.5 years | 47.8% (31.3–60.4%) | 42.0% (26.8–54.1%) | 47.8% (31.3–60.4%) |