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Table 1 Landmark model of cumulative risks of developing islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes

From: Landmark models to define the age-adjusted risk of developing stage 1 type 1 diabetes across childhood and adolescence

Outcome Landmark age Risk by 20 years of age Risk after 6 years of follow-up Risk after 12 years of follow-up
Any autoantibody From birth 8.0% (6.8–9.2%) 5.3% (4.4–6.2%) 7.0% (5.9–8.0%)
From 1.5 years 6.7% (5.5–7.8%) 4.2% (3.3–5.0%) 5.8% (4.8–6.9%)
From 3.5 years 4.7% (3.7–5.8%) 2.9% (2.2–3.7%) 4.4% (3.4–5.3%)
From 6.5 years 2.7% (1.9–3.6%) 1.8% (1.1–2.4%) 2.7% (1.9–3.6%)
From 9.5 years 2.0% (1.2–2.8%) 1.6% (0.9–2.3%) 2.0% (1.2–2.8%)
From 12.5 years 1.0% (0.4–1.7%) 1.0% (0.4–1.7%) 2.2% (0.4–4.0%)
Multiple autoantibodies From birth 6.3% (5.2–7.3%) 4.7% (3.8–5.6%) 5.8% (4.8–6.8%)
From 1.5 years 4.8% (3.9–5.8%) 3.7% (2.9–4.4%) 4.5% (3.6–5.4%)
From 3.5 years 3.3% (2.5–4.2%) 2.4% (1.7–3.0%) 3.1% (2.3–3.9%)
From 6.5 years 1.6% (1.0–2.3%) 1.2% (0.7–1.8%) 1.6% (1.0–2.3%)
From 9.5 years 0.9% (0.4–1.4%) 0.7% (0.2–1.1%) 0.9% (0.4–1.4%)
From 12.5 years 0.4% (0–0.9%) 0.4% (0–0.9%) 1.1% (0–2.3%)
Type 1 diabetes From birth 6.2% (5.0–7.3%) 1.4% (0.9–1.9%) 3.7% (2.9–4.5%)
From 1.5 years 5.9% (4.8–7.1%) 1.6% (1.1–2.2%) 4.2% (3.3–5.0%)
From 3.5 years 5.4% (4.3–6.5%) 1.8% (1.2–2.3%) 4.2% (3.3–5.1%)
From 6.5 years 4.7% (3.7–5.8%) 2.4% (1.7–3.1%) 4.5% (3.5–5.5%)
From 9.5 years 3.7% (2.7–4.7%) 2.5% (1.7–3.2%) 3.7% (2.7–4.7%)
From 12.5 years 2.4% (1.5–3.3%) 2.1% (1.3–2.9%) 2.8% (1.6–4.0%)
Type 1 diabetes, if islet antibody positive From 1.5 years 83.6% (56.4–93.8%) 45.6% (22.7–61.7%) 54.3% (30.0–70.2%)
From 3.5 years 84.3% (69.7–91.9%) 44.4% (30.4–55.6%) 70.7% (56.2–80.4%)
From 6.5 years 76.2% (62.1–85.0%) 44.0% (32.2–53.8%) 71.3% (57.8–80.5%)
From 9.5 years 64.1% (47.9–75.3%) 42.2% (29.0–53.0%) 64.1% (47.9–75.3%)
From 12.5 years 47.8% (31.3–60.4%) 42.0% (26.8–54.1%) 47.8% (31.3–60.4%)
  1. Cumulative risks (95% confidence intervals) of developing any islet autoantibody, the first of multiple islet autoantibodies, type 1 diabetes and type 1 diabetes if at least one autoantibody developed by the age of 20 years, and after 6 and 12 years of follow-up from the respective landmark age