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Table 5 Numbers and percentages of patients who cross the treatment threshold (10-year CVD risk of 10%) when using models B–F instead of model A

From: The uncertainty with using risk prediction models for individual decision making: an exemplar cohort study examining the prediction of cardiovascular disease in English primary care

  Predicted 10-year CVD risk according to model A (QRISK2) Predicted 10-year CVD risk according to model A (QRISK2)
5–6% 6–7% 7–8% 8–9% 9–10% < 10% 10–11% 11–12% 12–13% 13–14% 14–15% > 10%
Female (N = 200,000)
N 5163 4356 3561 3080 2602 169,491 2321 2086 1849 1617 1525 30,509
 Model B 21 (0%) 64 (1%) 105 (3%) 392 (13%) 547 (21%) 1140 (1%) 1000 (43%) 114 (5%) 3 (0%) 2 (0%) 4 (0%) 1128 (4%)
 Model C 73 (1%) 142 (3%) 220 (6%) 374 (12%) 592 (23%) 1446 (1%) 1260 (54%) 264 (13%) 33 (2%) 7 (0%) 5 (0%) 1575 (5%)
 Model D 63 (1%) 108 (2%) 206 (6%) 388 (13%) 689 (26%) 1498 (1%) 1204 (52%) 757 (36%) 461 (25%) 286 (18%) 203 (13%) 3252 (11%)
 Model E 69 (1%) 116 (3%) 236 (7%) 466 (15%) 703 (27%) 1649 (1%) 1276 (55%) 833 (40%) 533 (29%) 320 (20%) 223 (15%) 3645 (12%)
 Model F 100 (2%) 184 (4%) 310 (9%) 540 (18%) 765 (29%) 1978 (1%) 1328 (57%) 906 (43%) 589 (32%) 367 (23%) 253 (17%) 3953 (13%)
Male (N = 200,000)
N 7422 6077 5364 4483 3922 158,036 3355 3108 2710 2421 2283 41,964
 Model B 17 (0%) 33 (1%) 91 (2%) 255 (6%) 583 (15%) 983 (1%) 733 (22%) 51 (2%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 784 (2%)
 Model C 37 (0%) 86 (1%) 200 (4%) 318 (7%) 728 (19%) 1384 (1%) 1042 (31%) 95 (3%) 4 (0%) 1 (0%) 1 (0%) 1143 (3%)
 Model D 25 (0%) 63 (1%) 164 (3%) 341 (8%) 1220 (31%) 1823 (1%) 1625 (48%) 1008 (32%) 627 (23%) 375 (15%) 266 (12%) 4146 (10%)
 Model E 30 (0%) 66 (1%) 191 (4%) 505 (11%) 1146 (29%) 1953 (1%) 1792 (53%) 1129 (36%) 705 (26%) 435 (18%) 302 (13%) 4744 (11%)
 Model F 126 (2%) 267 (4%) 483 (9%) 750 (17%) 1146 (29%) 2850 (2%) 1896 (57%) 1337 (43%) 888 (33%) 539 (22%) 375 (16%) 5563 (13%)