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Table 4 Short-term forecasting performance in the context of the Ebola outbreak in DRC. For the ongoing Ebola outbreak in DRC, the sub-epidemic model consistently outperformed the other models in short-term forecasts based on all of the performance metrics. Values highlighted in italics correspond to the best performance metric at a given forecasting horizon

From: A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves

Model Mean absolute error (MAE) Mean squared error (MSE) Mean interval score (MIS) Percentage coverage of the 95% prediction interval
2 weeks ahead
 Sub-epidemic wave 9.3 131.9 67.4 86.1
 Richards 11.0 205.0 172.4 63.9
 Logistic 21.3 555.2 538.5 13.9
3 weeks ahead
 Sub-epidemic wave 10.9 194.7 104.8 79.6
 Richards 12.8 277.6 217.1 59.3
 Logistic 23.8 689.0 658.4 9.26
4 weeks ahead
 Sub-epidemic wave 12.3 258.5 153.1 75.0
 Richards 14.8 368.1 275.7 51.4
 Logistic 26.0 828.9 768.9 7.0
5 weeks ahead
 Sub-epidemic wave 14.1 337.9 207.1 68.9
 Richards 17.0 473.5 338.6 43.3
 Logistic 28.1 975.4 874.3 5.6