Fig. 3

Projections of post-vaccination vaccine-type carriage reduction. a Projected reduction in carriage relative to the pre-vaccination era for age groups 0 years (magenta), 1 year (blue), 2 years (yellow) and 3–5 years (purple) old. b Projected reduction in carriage relative to the pre-vaccination era for aggregated age groups 0–5 years (green) and 6–9 years (red) old (with corresponding 95% CIs). a, b Solutions presented are obtained from sampling 100,000 parameter values from posteriors and simulating the dynamic model. The shaded areas are yellow for the post-vaccination period with no carriage data, white for the post-vaccination period with data, and grey for the post-vaccination projected period up to 10 years. Dotted vertical lines mark survey dates. The x-axis origin marks PCV13 introduction