Table 2 Variation in goodness of fit and optimal change point based on different models for incidence of infective endocarditis, according to different criteria. For each model type, the month of change which gives the best model fit is shown, with best overall models shown in bold italics. AIC measures model goodness of fit (the lower the value the better the fit, within each set of inclusion criteria and method of population adjustment)
|  |  | Raw cases | Cases per 10 k population | Cases standardised by age and sex | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inclusion criteria | Model type | AIC | Month of change (uncertainty interval) | AIC | Month of change (uncertainty interval) | AIC | Month of change (uncertainty interval) | |
All cases | Criteria A (Sensitivity/PPV) | One change in trend, with step | 2050.6 | Dec 2010 (Jan 2009–Apr 2013) | 2049.3 | Dec 2010 (Jan 2009–Jul 2013) | 2010.2 | Dec 2010 (Jan 2009–Jul 2013) |
One change in trend, no step | 2050.6 | Apr 2011 (Jul 2010–Jun 2012) | 2049.9 | May 2011 (Aug 2010–Aug 2012) | 2011.6 | Jan 2012 (Oct 2010–Mar 2013) | ||
Single overall trend | 2140.6 | NA | 2132.2 | NA | 2080.1 | NA | ||
No trend, with step | 2245.6 | Jun 2011 (Jun 2011–Sep 2011) | 2176.3 | Mar 2013 (Mar 2013–Apr 2013) | 2096.6 | Mar 2013 (Mar 2013–Apr 2013) | ||
Criteria B (Specificity/PPV) | One change in trend, with step | 1875.3 | Jul 2011 (Nov 2008–Aug 2011) | 1872.4 | Jul 2011 (Jan 2009–Aug 2011) | 1830.4 | Jul 2011 (Jan 2009–Sep 2011) | |
One change in trend, no step | 1875.5 | Sep 2009 (Jun 2008–Aug 2010) | 1873.3 | Nov 2009 (Sep 2008–Oct 2010) | 1831.1 | Jan 2010 (Oct 2008–Jan 2011) | ||
Single overall trend | 1996.5 | NA | 1987.3 | NA | 1934.9 | NA | ||
No trend, with step | 2060.0 | Jul 2011 (Jun 2011–Jul 2011) | 2011.1 | Jul 2011 (Jun 2011–Aug 2011) | 1943.5 | Jul 2011 (Jun 2011–Aug 2011) | ||
Criteria C (Prior study) | One change in trend, with step | 2059.8 | Jun 2011 (Feb 2010–Aug 2011) | 2057.3 | Jun 2011 (Mar 2011–Aug 2011) | 2019.9 | Jun 2011 (Mar 2011–Aug 2011) | |
One change in trend, no step | 2061.7 | Dec 2009 (Nov 2007–Aug 2010) | 2059.6 | Jan 2010 (Apr 2008–Sep 2010) | 2022.2 | Jan 2010 (Feb 2008–Oct 2010) | ||
Single overall trend | 2186.4 | NA | 2178.6 | NA | 2130.0 | NA | ||
No trend, with step | 2207.2 | Jun 2011 (Jun 2011–Aug 2011) | 2167.8 | Aug 2011 (Jun 2011–Dec 2011) | 2108.6 | Aug 2011 (Jun 2011–Dec 2011) | ||
High-risk cases | Criteria A (Sensitivity/PPV) | One change in trend, with step | 1553.0 | May 2000 (Jan 2000–Feb 2009) | 1553.2 | May 2001 (Mar 2000–Feb 2009) | 1516.1 | May 2001 (Mar 2000–Feb 2009) |
One change in trend, no step | 1551.9 | Sep 2001 (Aug 2000–May 2003) | 1552.1 | Sep 2001 (Sep 2000–Jul 2003) | 1515.2 | Oct 2001 (Nov 2000–Nov 2005) | ||
Single overall trend | 1579.8 | NA | 1583.7 | NA | 1552.4 | NA | ||
No trend, with step | 2141.6 | Aug 2005 (Aug 2005–Nov 2007) | 2019.9 | Aug 2005 (Aug 2005–Aug 2005) | 1854.1 | Aug 2005 (Aug 2005–Aug 2005) | ||
Criteria B (Specificity/PPV) | One change in trend, with step | 1414.1 | May 2015 (Mar 1999–Jan 2016) | 1415.0 | Jan 2000 (Mar 1999–Jan 2016) | 1373.9 | Jan 2000 (Jul 1999–Jul 2004) | |
One change in trend, no step | 1417.5 | Jun 2001 (Dec 1999–Mar 2016) | 1417.5 | Jun 2001 (Jan 2000–Jan 2016) | 1376.1 | Jun 2001 (Mar 2000–Aug 2005) | ||
Single overall trend | 1422.6 | NA | 1423.8 | NA | 1384.6 | NA | ||
No trend, with step | 1903.7 | May 2009 (Mar 2008–May 2009) | 1836.6 | Mar 2008 (Mar 2008–May 2009) | 1708.5 | Mar 2008 (Mar 2008–Mar 2008) | ||
Criteria C (Prior study) | One change in trend, with step | 1788.1 | Jun 2002 (May 2002–Oct 2013) | 1788.0 | Jun 2002 (May 2002–Oct 2013) | 1751.5 | Jun 2002 (May 2002–Oct 2013) | |
One change in trend, no step | 1791.9 | Jun 2010 (Feb 2005–Jan 2012) | 1791.9 | Jun 2010 (Nov 2005–Feb 2012) | 1756.8 | Jun 2010 (Sep 2004–Nov 2012) | ||
Single overall trend | 1804.0 | NA | 1802.9 | NA | 1764.4 | NA | ||
No trend, with step | 1939.9 | Mar 2011 (Mar 2011–Aug 2011) | 1920.5 | Mar 2011 (Mar 2011–Dec 2011) | 1874.2 | Mar 2011 (Mar 2011–Aug 2011) | ||