Table 2 Parameter estimates (95% CI) in England and in France

Transmissibility of MenW:cc11/SA (relative to that of non-MenW:cc11)

r^(β)

1.20 (1.15, 1.26)

1.15 (fixed)

1.20 (fixed)

1.26 (fixed)

Invasiveness of MenW:cc11/SA in 0–4 yo (relative to that of non-MenW:cc11 in 0–4 yo)

r^(θ)_I

4.0 (1.6, 9.7)

7.9 (fixed)

4.0 (fixed)

2.1 (fixed)

Invasiveness of MenW:cc11/SA in 5–24 yo (relative to that of MenW:cc11/SA in 0–4 yo)

r^(θ)_II

3.3 (2.1, 5.8)

3.6 (fixed)

3.2 (fixed)

3.3 (fixed)

Invasiveness of MenW:cc11/SA in 25+ yo (relative to that of MenW:cc11/SA in 5–24 yo)

r^(θ)_III

1.6 (1.1, 2.3)

1.3 (fixed)

1.5 (fixed)

1.4 (fixed)

Emergence time of MenW:cc11/SA carriage

t₀

2009.5 (fixed)

2011.8 (2010.8, 2012.5)

2011.5 (2011.4, 2012.5)

2012.3 (2012.0, 2012.5)

Log-likelihood

–

− 85.5

− 80.4

− 90.5

− 101.8