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Table 2 Intercept and regression coefficients of the prediction models for overweight and obesity (≥ 91st centile) in children aged 4–5 years before and after shrinkage

From: Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data

PredictorsBookingBirthEarly life (~ 1 year)Early life (~ 2 years)
CoefficientShrunken coefficientCoefficientShrunken coefficientCoefficientShrunken coefficientCoefficientShrunken coefficient
Intercept0.8770.8452.2152.169− 5.186− 5.160− 10.510− 10.466
Maternal age at booking, years1.3941.3771.1141.101− 0.006− 0.006  
Maternal BMI at booking, kg/m2− 7.061− 6.971− 6.371− 6.295− 6.733− 6.686− 6.687− 6.656
Maternal smoking status at booking
 Never smokedRef Ref Ref Ref 
 Ex-smoker0.0990.0980.0800.0790.0470.0470.0440.044
 Current smoker0.4360.4310.5830.5760.5320.5280.5360.534
Maternal educational attainment
 University or above  Ref Ref Ref 
 College  0.0880.0870.1300.1290.1160.115
 Secondary or lower  0.1030.1020.1900.1880.1740.173
Maternal ethnicity
 WhiteRef Ref Ref Ref 
 Mixed0.0200.0200.1050.1030.0980.0980.0190.019
 Asian0.2740.2710.4440.4390.5890.5850.4020.400
 Black/African/Caribbean0.6550.6470.7780.7690.7710.7660.5110.509
 Other0.0840.0830.1240.1220.2350.234− 0.073− 0.073
Maternal intake of folic acid supplements
 Taking prior to pregnancyRef Ref Ref Ref 
 Started taking once pregnant0.0940.0930.1200.1180.1560.1550.1550.154
 Not taking supplement0.0530.0530.0840.0830.1600.1580.1590.159
Maternal first language English
 NoRef Ref     
 Yes− 0.319− 0.315− 0.285− 0.282    
Partnership status at booking
 PartneredRef Ref Ref Ref 
 Single0.1820.1790.1930.1900.1960.1950.1760.175
Parity at booking
 0Ref Ref     
 10.0170.016− 0.108− 0.106    
 20.0930.092− 0.057− 0.056    
 30.1730.1710.0190.018    
Birthweight, kg  0.1070.1060.1290.128− 0.114− 0.113
Gestational age at birth, days  − 0.011− 0.011− 0.008− 0.008  
Infant gender
 Male    Ref Ref 
 Female    0.4260.4230.3660.364
Infant weight, kg    0.7530.7480.8250.821
Transformations
 Maternal age at booking(Maternal age/10)− 2(Maternal age/10)− 2  
 Maternal BMI at booking(Maternal BMI/10)− 1(Maternal BMI/10)− 1(Maternal BMI/10)− 1(Maternal BMI/10)− 1
 Birthweight Birthweight2  
Discrimination and calibration
 AUC0.66
0.65 to 0.67
0.69
0.68 to 0.70
0.78
0.77 to 0.79
0.83
0.82 to 0.84
 Calibration slope (standard error)0.98 (0.03)0.98 (0.03)0.99 (0.01)0.99 (0.01)
  1. Only predictors significant at p < 0.157 were included in the prediction models. Categorical variables with at least one significant category have been included