Predictors | Booking | Birth | Early life (~ 1 year) | Early life (~ 2 years) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coefficient | Shrunken coefficient | Coefficient | Shrunken coefficient | Coefficient | Shrunken coefficient | Coefficient | Shrunken coefficient | |
Intercept | 0.877 | 0.845 | 2.215 | 2.169 | − 5.186 | − 5.160 | − 10.510 | − 10.466 |
Maternal age at booking, years | 1.394 | 1.377 | 1.114 | 1.101 | − 0.006 | − 0.006 | ||
Maternal BMI at booking, kg/m2 | − 7.061 | − 6.971 | − 6.371 | − 6.295 | − 6.733 | − 6.686 | − 6.687 | − 6.656 |
Maternal smoking status at booking | ||||||||
Never smoked | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | ||||
Ex-smoker | 0.099 | 0.098 | 0.080 | 0.079 | 0.047 | 0.047 | 0.044 | 0.044 |
Current smoker | 0.436 | 0.431 | 0.583 | 0.576 | 0.532 | 0.528 | 0.536 | 0.534 |
Maternal educational attainment | ||||||||
University or above | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||||
College | 0.088 | 0.087 | 0.130 | 0.129 | 0.116 | 0.115 | ||
Secondary or lower | 0.103 | 0.102 | 0.190 | 0.188 | 0.174 | 0.173 | ||
Maternal ethnicity | ||||||||
White | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | ||||
Mixed | 0.020 | 0.020 | 0.105 | 0.103 | 0.098 | 0.098 | 0.019 | 0.019 |
Asian | 0.274 | 0.271 | 0.444 | 0.439 | 0.589 | 0.585 | 0.402 | 0.400 |
Black/African/Caribbean | 0.655 | 0.647 | 0.778 | 0.769 | 0.771 | 0.766 | 0.511 | 0.509 |
Other | 0.084 | 0.083 | 0.124 | 0.122 | 0.235 | 0.234 | − 0.073 | − 0.073 |
Maternal intake of folic acid supplements | ||||||||
Taking prior to pregnancy | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | ||||
Started taking once pregnant | 0.094 | 0.093 | 0.120 | 0.118 | 0.156 | 0.155 | 0.155 | 0.154 |
Not taking supplement | 0.053 | 0.053 | 0.084 | 0.083 | 0.160 | 0.158 | 0.159 | 0.159 |
Maternal first language English | ||||||||
No | Ref | Ref | ||||||
Yes | − 0.319 | − 0.315 | − 0.285 | − 0.282 | ||||
Partnership status at booking | ||||||||
Partnered | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | ||||
Single | 0.182 | 0.179 | 0.193 | 0.190 | 0.196 | 0.195 | 0.176 | 0.175 |
Parity at booking | ||||||||
0 | Ref | Ref | ||||||
1 | 0.017 | 0.016 | − 0.108 | − 0.106 | ||||
2 | 0.093 | 0.092 | − 0.057 | − 0.056 | ||||
3 | 0.173 | 0.171 | 0.019 | 0.018 | ||||
Birthweight, kg | 0.107 | 0.106 | 0.129 | 0.128 | − 0.114 | − 0.113 | ||
Gestational age at birth, days | − 0.011 | − 0.011 | − 0.008 | − 0.008 | ||||
Infant gender | ||||||||
Male | Ref | Ref | ||||||
Female | 0.426 | 0.423 | 0.366 | 0.364 | ||||
Infant weight, kg | 0.753 | 0.748 | 0.825 | 0.821 | ||||
Transformations | ||||||||
Maternal age at booking | (Maternal age/10)− 2 | (Maternal age/10)− 2 | ||||||
Maternal BMI at booking | (Maternal BMI/10)− 1 | (Maternal BMI/10)− 1 | (Maternal BMI/10)− 1 | (Maternal BMI/10)− 1 | ||||
Birthweight | Birthweight2 | |||||||
Discrimination and calibration | ||||||||
AUC | 0.66 0.65 to 0.67 | 0.69 0.68 to 0.70 | 0.78 0.77 to 0.79 | 0.83 0.82 to 0.84 | ||||
Calibration slope (standard error) | 0.98 (0.03) | 0.98 (0.03) | 0.99 (0.01) | 0.99 (0.01) |