Fig. 2

Identifying areas with local overrepresentation of young children in tuberculosis notification data. Hierarchical Bayesian spatial model fit to the child cases < 5 years old and adult cases > 15 years old in the notification data aggregated into 200 m × 200 m grid cells overlaid on the convex hull of the data. The model suggested six grid cells (red) in which > 95% of the posterior distribution of the random effect terms were above zero, and an additional eight grid cells (orange) in which > 90% of the posterior distribution was above zero. The proportion of child cases in these grid cells is greater than expected over the study region, suggesting recent tuberculosis transmission based on our hypothesis