Fig. 4

Estimated daily number of deaths during the first 18 months of the epidemic, under different strategies. Black lines show results using country R_t estimates, while coloured lines show results using global R₀ estimates. Thick solid lines show the run which was closest to the median total number of deaths after 12 months across all model runs. Dashed lines are runs closest to the lower and upper 95% quantiles, while dotted lines are runs closest to the lower and upper 50% quantiles of total number of deaths, calculated over 600 model runs. Except for the unmitigated scenario, all scenarios assume 50% self-isolation during the symptomatic period of all symptomatic cases throughout the entire course of the epidemic. Other interventions start when daily incidence of symptomatic cases reaches 1 case per 10,000 people. Distancing strategies assume 20% or 50% reduction in all contacts outside of the household. Shielding strategies assume shielding of 80% of the population aged ≥ 60 years, irrespective of underlying comorbidities, with an 80% reduction in contacts between the shielded and unshielded population, and no change in contacts within the shielded population. Estimates for bed demand over time are given in Figure S2