Table 2 Projected impact of unmitigated COVID-19 epidemics during the first 12 months following introduction of cases, by country. All values represent the median and 95% lower and upper quantiles from all model runs in each scenario. The symptomatic attack rate is calculated as the total number of symptomatic cases divided by the population. We show the months until the epidemic peak (defined as the day with the highest number of new cases) and present the peak daily number of deaths and hospital bed demand
From: Response strategies for COVID-19 epidemics in African settings: a mathematical modelling study
Key outcome | Niger | Nigeria | Mauritius |
|---|---|---|---|
Population size | 24,100,000 | 202,900,000 | 1,300,000 |
Population aged ≥ 60 years | 4% | 5% | 18% |
Projections using country Rt estimates | |||
 Symptomatic cases | 3,270,000 (30,000 to 4,980,000) | 35,570,000 (5000 to 53,270,000) | 380,000 (5000 to 610,000) |
 Symptomatic attack rate | 13.6% (0.1 to 20.7) | 17.5% (0 to 26.3) | 29.1% (0.4 to 46.6) |
 Severe, non-critical cases | 60,000 (300 to 110,000) | 1,020,000 (100 to 1,740,000) | 30,000 (400 to 60,000) |
 Severe, critical cases | 30,000 (100 to 50,000) | 440,000 (40 to 750,000) | 10,000 (100 to 30,000) |
 Deaths | 20,000 (70 to 30,000) | 270,000 (30 to 460,000) | 8000 (90 to 20,000) |
 Deaths per 1000 person-years | 0.7 (0 to 1.3) | 1.3 (0 to 2.3) | 6.5 (0.1 to 12.8) |
 Epidemic peak (month) | 6 (4 to 12) | 8 (5 to 12) | 5 (2 to 12) |
 Peak deaths | 300 (4 to 700) | 4000 (2 to 10,000) | 200 (3 to 700) |
 Peak demand for non-ICU beds | 8000 (40 to 20,000) | 120,000 (10 to 330,000) | 4000 (30 to 20,000) |
 Peak demand for ICU beds | 4000 (20 to 10,000) | 60,000 (7 to 180,000) | 2000 (20 to 10,000) |
Projections using global R0 estimates | |||
 Symptomatic cases | 5,480,000 (2,980,000 to 6,840,000) | 60,200,000 (35,920,000 to 69,730,000) | 540,000 (360,000 to 610,000) |
 Symptomatic attack rate | 22.7% (12.3 to 28.4) | 29.7% (17.7 to 34.4) | 41.7% (27.7 to 46.6) |
 Severe, non-critical cases | 130,000 (50,000 to 190,000) | 2,090,000 (1,030,000 to 2,670,000) | 50,000 (30,000 to 60,000) |
 Severe, critical cases | 60,000 (20,000 to 80,000) | 890,000 (440,000 to 1,150,000) | 20,000 (10,000 to 30,000) |
 Deaths | 30,000 (10,000 to 50,000) | 560,000 (270,000 to 710,000) | 10,000 (8000 to 20,000) |
 Deaths per 1000 person-years | 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1) | 2.7 (1.4 to 3.5) | 10.6 (6.1 to 12.9) |
 Epidemic peak (month) | 4 (3 to 7) | 4 (3 to 8) | 3 (2 to 5) |
 Peak deaths | 900 (200 to 2000) | 20,000 (4000 to 30,000) | 400 (100 to 700) |
 Peak demand for non-ICU beds | 30,000 (6000 to 50,000) | 480,000 (120,000 to 800,000) | 10,000 (4000 to 20,000) |
 Peak demand for ICU beds | 10,000 (3000 to 30,000) | 250,000 (70,000 to 420,000) | 7000 (2000 to 10,000) |