Table 4 Model selection and discrimination in the derivation and validation cohorts

Age at recruitment, per 10 years

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●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Waist circumference, per 10 cm

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●

●

●

●

●

●

Height, per 10 cm

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●

●

●

●

Daily alcohol consumption, high

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●

●

●

●

Ever smoker, yes

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Physically active, yes

●

●

●

Vegetables, per 100 g/day

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●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Fruits, per 100 g/day

Dark bread, per 50 g/day

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●

●

Dairy products, per 100 g/day

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●

●

●

Red meat, per 50 g/day

●

Poultry, per 50 g/day

Processed meat, per 50 g/day

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●

●

●

Fish, per 50 g/day

Sugar and confectionary, per 50 g/day

●

Soft drinks, per 100 g/day

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●

Full model

 Derivation cohort

0.710

0.700

0.702

0.718

0.708

0.718

0.705

0.705

0.677

 Optimism corrected *

0.708

0.697

0.700

0.716

0.707

0.715

0.704

0.703

0.668

 Validation cohort

0.715

0.707

0.700

0.708

0.727

0.700

0.730

0.689

0.693

Reduced model

 Derivation cohort

0.710

0.699

0.700

0.717

0.705

0.717

0.703

0.700

0.668

 Optimism corrected*

0.709

0.698

0.699

0.716

0.704

0.715

0.701

0.698

0.667

 Validation cohort

0.714

0.708

0.699

0.708

0.727

0.698

0.728

0.687

0.696