Fig. 2

Model validation results. a Validation of the importation simulation model. The dashed line was based on a linear regression model with the slope fixed to be one fitted to all observations on a log₁₀ scale excluding the two red dots, which show that the reported or the estimated value was zero. b Comparison of R₀ values obtained from our estimation versus the existing literature. The grey polygon denotes the ± 0.3 error band and the red dot refers to the R₀ estimate at the temperature 25 °C in French Polynesia by Zhang et al. [11], which was used to calibrate the model