Table 1 Model parameters. An overview of the key model parameter assumptions and their sources. Parameter ranges are those used in the sensitivity analyses

Vaccine schedule

MCV1: 9 months

MCV2: 18 months

[14]

Vaccine effectiveness (beta distributed)

MCV1: 85% (80–90%)

+MCV2: 98% (95–100%)

Combined effectiveness 93% (88–96%)

[15, 16]

Age-immunity profile in < 15 years old (bootstrapped from data)

Observed in 2019

[11]

Proportion immune among > 15 years old (beta distributed)

96% (90–99%)

[13]

Vaccine coverage August 2019 to March 2020 (assumed to be same as in 2018) (beta distributed)

MCV1: 79% (75–85%)

MCV2: 45% (40–50%)

[9, 17, 18]

Vaccine coverage from April 2020

MCV1 and MCV2 0%, 15%, 50%, or 100% reduced

Assumption

R₀ measles (Log-normally distributed)

14 (12–18)

[19]

Reduction in contacts during COVID-19

50% (25% and 75%)

[20]

Age demographics

From KHDSS in 2019

[10]

Social mixing matrix

From 2011/12

[21]