Table 2 China–Epidemiologic impact for 50% efficacy, 10-year duration of protection vaccines. Estimates are median (uncertainty interval) values. Incidence and mortality rate reductions compare annual values of vaccine vs baseline in 2030 and 2050. Cases and deaths averted are cumulative over 2027–2030 and 2027–2050

RR/MDR-TB

% Incidence rate reduction in year

44% (42–46)

73% (66–76)

14% (13–16)

29% (27–31)

% Mortality rate reduction in year

22% (18–24)

67% (59–72)

8% (6–10)

28% (25–30)

Cumulative cases averted, millions

0.2 (0.1–0.2)

2.1 (1.1–2.7)

0.05 (0.04–0.06)

0.7 (0.5–0.9)

Cumulative deaths averted, millions

0.003 (0.001–0.005)

0.1 (0.0–0.2)

0.001 (0.001–0.002)

0.04 (0.02–0.06)

All TB

% Incidence rate reduction in year

42% (40–44)

56% (53–59)

28% (26–29)

37% (35–38)

% Mortality rate reduction in year

29% (26–32)

53% (48–58)

21% (18–24)

35% (33–36)

Cumulative cases averted, millions

1.4 (1.2–1.5)

10.5 (8.9–12.0)

0.9 (0.8–1.0)

6.9 (5.9–7.8)

Cumulative deaths averted, millions

0.02 (0.01–0.04)

0.4 (0.2–0.5)

0.02 (0.01–0.03)

0.3 (0.1–0.4)