Fig. 2
From: Interventions to control nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study
Comparison of the scenarios with the wild-type and a more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant. Both scenarios assume 90% effective PPE use in COVID wards. For the wild-type scenario (black), model simulations were performed with RS = 1.25 (reproduction number of symptomatically infected individuals) and RA = 0.5 (reproduction number of asymptomatically infected individuals). For the baseline scenario (blue), model simulations were performed with RS = 1.95 and RA = 0.8 (with 56% higher transmissibility with respect to the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 variant). Horizontal dashed lines represent a reproduction number of 1. Summary statistics were calculated for 100 simulations. A Simulated mean number of beds occupied by patients in COVID wards per day (black curve) and 95% uncertainty interval (grey shaded area). Red points represent real-life data on the daily number of beds occupied by COVID-19 patients at the UMCU between 27 February and 24 August 2020. B Number of nosocomial transmissions as predicted by the models. Full rectangular bar height represents the mean total number of nosocomial transmissions during the whole study period. Grey error bars represent 95% uncertainty intervals. Patients acquiring a SARS-CoV-2 nosocomial infection may be diagnosed in the hospital (due to symptom onset during hospital stay or detection by an intervention) or discharged to the community in a pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic state. Rectangular bars with black borders represent mean number of individuals (patients and HCWs) infected with SARS-CoV-2 and diagnosed in the hospital. Lighter rectangular bars represent the remaining mean number of patients discharged to community undiagnosed. C Violin and box plots of the overall effective reprduction numbers (RE, for pre-/symptomatic and asymptomatic patients and HCWs combined) for the nosocomial spread in the wild-type and baseline scenario. D Violin and box plots of RE for the nosocomial spread in the wild-type and baseline scenario (separate values for pre-/symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals). Since HCWs are assumed to immediately self-isolate upon symptom onset, the reproduction number is assigned to the pre-symptomatic state