Table 1 Results of the KSA-IBM for all the simulated scenarios (from June 21, 2020, to June 21, 2021). The table shows the number of reported cases, hospitalized cases, and deaths. The number in the bracket represents the 95% credible interval

 Mask 0%| Distancing 0%

(Remote education)

2,832,645

(2,164,487–3,664,242)

368,244

(281,383–476,351)

45,889

(35,065–59,361)

 Mask 0%| Distancing 0%

(In-person education)

4,824,065

(3,673,775–6,335,423)

627,128

(477,591–823,605)

78,150

(59,515–102,634)

 Mask 50% | Distancing 50%

697,311

(519,984–917,690)

90,650

(67,598–119,300)

11,296

(8424–14,867)

 Mask 80% | Distancing 50%

397,361

(347,641–509,685)

51,657

(45,193–66,259)

6437

(5632–8257)

 Mask 50% | Distancing 70%

360,308

(330,392–418,019)

46,840

(42,951–54,342)

5837

(5352–6772)

 Mask 80% | Distancing 70%

304,858

(298,169–316,210)

39,632

(38,762–41,107)

4939

(4830–5123)

 Mask 20% | Distancing 20%

Contact tracing 50%

1,354,458

(904,170–2,005,074)

176,080

(117,542–260,660)

21,942

(14,648–32,482)

 Mask 20% | Distancing 20%|

Contact tracing 70%

616,643

(473,405–864,682)

80,164

(61,543–112,409)

9990

(7669–14,008)

 In-person education

(No NPIs in schools)^a

4,801,416

(3,816,009–6,258,459)

624,184

(496,081–813,600)

77,783

(61,819–101,387)

 In-person education

(Mask 50% | Distancing 50% in schools)

3,539,897

(2,859,676–4,488,397)

460,187

(371,758–583,492)

57,346

(46,327–72,712)

 In-person education

(Mask 70% | Distancing 70% in schools)

2,304,308

(1,790,133–3,086,625)

299,560

(232,717–401,261)

37,330

(29,100–50,013)

 International travel ban lifted

(No quarantine)^a

3,062,395

(2,758,885–3,476,121)

398,111

(358,655–451,896)

49,611

(44,694–56,313)

 International travel ban lifted

(Quarantine: 50%)^a

384,100

(346,977–469,237)

49,933

(45,107–61,001)

6222

(5621–7602)

 International travel ban lifted

(Quarantine: 80%)^a

349,409

(327,304–400,363)

45,423

(42,550–52,047)

5660

(5302–6486)