Fig. 2

Probability of premature death due to cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory diseases and diabetes combined (NCD4), in Australia 2010–2025, by projected populations A, B, and C. Notes: (1) Solid lines indicate observed probability and non-solid/dashed lines indicate projected probability. (2) The projected probability of premature death in 2017–2025 was calculated using the data from 2006 to 2016 with the Australian Bureau of Statistics projected population series B which reflects the current trends in migration, fertility and life expectancy (main analysis, shown in orange). Sensitivity analyses using the alternative Australian Bureau of Statistics projected population series are shown in green (series A, reflecting an increase in migration, fertility and life expectancy) and purple (series C, showing a decrease in trends in migration, fertility and life expectancy). (3) Premature death refers to deaths in people between the exact ages of 30 and 69 years. (4) Deaths were included for NCD4 conditions which were identified using ICD-10 codes: cancer (C00–C97), cardiovascular disease (CVD) (I00–I99), chronic respiratory diseases (J30–J98) and diabetes (E10–E14)