Fig. 4

The influence of ‘mechanistic’ regimen parameters on regimen efficacy. As described in the main text, we define ‘efficacy’ as the incidence reductions that would result under trial conditions, over 2 years of follow-up. However, efficacy in the model accommodates a range of scenarios for the relative role of different, underlying mechanisms of protection. Shown are estimates for the strength of association between each mechanistic parameter, and efficacy (incidence reductions) that would be measured under trial conditions, upon 2-year follow-up. As in Fig. 2, larger bars indicate those parameters that are more influential for efficacy, and error bars show 95% uncertainty intervals, estimated through bootstrapping. See Additional file 5: Fig. S10 for further analysis on how parameters interact to yield efficacy