Fig. 5

Impact of vaccination of 5–11-year-olds in England, calculated in November 2021. Top row: reduction in infections, hospital admissions and deaths in 5–11-year-olds due to vaccination in this age group. Middle row: total number of infections, hospital admissions and deaths in the entire population (total bar) and 5–17-year-olds (open bar). Lower row: number of projected hospital admissions over time (lines and ribbons; black for vaccinating those aged 12 and above but not 5–11-year-olds, colours corresponding to the bars in the above rows), and the assumed time discounting (grey shading). In the upper two rows bars are the mean value, error bars are the 95% prediction intervals, and different colours represent different assumption about uptake in 5–17-year-olds (no vaccination, 60%, 70% and 80%) and different assumptions about vaccine delivery speed (slow - 100,000 per week, default - 140,000 per week, fast - 180,000 per week). In the lower row, the counterfactual of no vaccination in all 5–17-year-olds (dark grey) and the vaccination of 12–17 but not 5–11 (light grey) are both shown