Fig. 2

Schematic of the spillover simulation and outbreak simulation models. The spillover simulation model estimates the magnitude and timing (seasonality) of the spillover rate for each catchment area from the historical distribution of reported spillovers in the catchment area. These estimated spillover rates are input into our outbreak model for each catchment area (as identified by the bolded model input), which used a branching process model to simulate human-to-human transmission. An outbreak response was triggered within a catchment area if the number of reported cases exceeded a predetermined number within a 28-day time window (outbreak threshold size). Outbreak model inputs with a superscript S were varied as part of our sensitivity analysis