Table 3 Count and rates of breakthrough positive SARS-CoV-2 tests and hospitalisation and death in fully vaccinated individuals in OpenSAFELY-TPP, broken down by selected clinical and demographic groups

Age

16–29

2,227,120

66 (47–129)

45

21

11

22

63,620 (516,289)

5.47

123.22 (122.74–123.71)

1000

(527,073)

1.90 (1.84–1.96)

40

(527,145)

0.07 (0.06–0.08)

10

(527,150)

0.02 (0.01–0.02)

30–39

2,289,165

94 (72–145)

42

21

12

25

93,375 (660,313)

4.50

141.41 (140.95–141.88)

1550

(673,014)

2.30 (2.25–2.36)

80

(673,118)

0.12 (0.10–0.13)

35

(673,127)

0.05 (0.04–0.06)

40–50

2,459,075

126 (103–155)

40

20

11

29

153,210 (851,368)

3.86

179.96 (179.5–180.42)

2320

(871,625)

2.66 (2.61–2.72)

210

(871,799)

0.24 (0.22–0.26)

120

(871,821)

0.14 (0.12–0.15)

50–59

2,942,440

146 (135–163)

43

19

10

28

136,470 (1,188,958)

2.49

114.78 (114.47–115.09)

3850 (1,209,351)

3.18 (3.13–3.23)

420

(1,209,663)

0.35 (0.33–0.37)

370

(1,209,705)

0.31 (0.29–0.32)

60–69

2,421,245

163 (150–174)

49

18

9

24

72,735 (1,064,063)

1.94

68.36 (68.1–68.61)

4715 (1,074,117)

4.39 (4.33–4.45)

530

(1,074,498)

0.49 (0.47–0.52)

845

(1,074,542)

0.78 (0.76–0.81)

70–79

2,016,365

184 (176–191)

56

17

8

19

42,075 (998433)

2.11

42.14 (41.93–42.34)

7050 (1,003,480)

7.03 (6.94–7.11)

530

(1,004,114)

0.53 (0.51–0.55)

1720 (1,004,149)

1.71 (1.67–1.76)

80 +

1,146,150

200 (191–213)

55

14

7

24

18,295 (633,074)

1.72

28.9 (28.69–29.11)

8095

(634,874)

12.75 (12.61–12.89)

180

(635670)

0.29 (0.27–0.31)

3345

(635,683)

5.26 (5.17–5.35)

Sex

Female

8,072,115

155 (116–184)

43

19

10

28

326,565 (3,182,819)

2.69

102.6 (102.42–102.78)

13,500 (3,228,984)

4.18 (4.14–4.22)

740

(3,230,164)

0.23 (0.22–0.24)

2655 (3,230,233)

0.82 (0.81–0.84)

Male

7,429,435

144 (99–174)

50

19

10

21

253,215 (2,729,679)

4.04

92.76 (92.58–92.95)

15,080 (2,764,551)

5.46 (5.41–5.50)

1250 (2,765,843)

0.45 (0.44–0.46)

3780 (2,765,945)

1.37 (1.34–1.39)

BMI (kg/m²)

Not obese

12,078,955

145 (98–178)

46

19

10

25

429,315 (4,498,201)

3.20

95.44 (95.3–95.59)

18,330 (4,558,086)

4.02 (3.99–4.05)

1010 (4,559,694)

0.22 (0.21–0.23)

4475 (4,559,783)

0.98 (0.97–1.00)

Obese (>30)

3,422,600

159 (135–181)

46

19

10

26

150,465 (1,414,297)

3.07

106.39 (106.11–106.66)

10,255 (1,435,449)

7.14 (7.07–7.21)

980

(1,436,313)

0.68 (0.66–0.71)

1965 (1,436,395)

1.37 (1.34–1.40)

Smoking

Non-smoker and unknown

7,833,690

143 (91–176)

45

19

10

26

291,000 (2,835,776)

3.19

102.62 (102.43–102.81)

9960 (2,876,640)

3.46 (3.43–3.50)

675

(2,877,506)

0.24 (0.23–0.24)

1860 (2,877,571)

0.65 (0.63–0.66)

Current and former

7,667,865

156 (125–182)

47

19

10

24

288,780 (3,076,722)

3.14

93.86 (93.68–94.03)

18,620 (3,116,894)

5.97 (5.93–6.02)

1310 (3,118,501)

0.42 (0.41–0.43)

4575 (3,118,607)

1.47 (1.45–1.49)

Ethnicity

White

11,895,195

154 (119–182)

44

19

10

26

466,170 (4,688,366)

3.08

99.43 (99.29–99.58)

25,500 (4,753,382)

5.36 (5.33–5.40)

1760 (4,755,592)

0.37 (0.36–0.38)

5905 (4,755,742)

1.24 (1.23–1.26)

Mixed

151,275

129

(76–164)

44

20

11

25

4980 (50,030)

3.78

99.56 (98.16–100.98)

195

(50,764)

3.82 (3.56–4.11)

20

(50,779)

0.35 (0.28–0.45)

25

(50,780)

0.51 (0.42–0.62)

Asian or Asian British

901,520

134 (81–170)

55

19

10

17

29,830 (309,199)

4.24

96.48 (95.92–97.04)

1735

(313,404)

5.54 (5.40–5.67)

120

(313,565)

0.39 (0.36–0.43)

300

(313,577)

0.95 (0.90–1.01)

Black or Black British

224,740

138 (87–172)

49

18

9

23

5930 (78,696)

2.98

75.37 (74.39–76.35)

415

(79,581)

5.20 (4.95–5.46)

25

(79,614)

0.34 (0.28–0.41)

50

(79,616)

0.63 (0.55–0.72)

Other ethnic groups

242,335

122 (79–159)

50

19

10

20

5970 (78,690)

3.66

75.85 (74.88–76.84)

295

(79,509)

3.69 (3.48–3.91)

30

(79,531)

0.38 (0.31–0.45)

55

(79,534)

0.67 (0.58–0.76)

Unknown

2,086,480

135 (82–164)

53

18

9

21

66,900 (707,517)

3.36

94.56 (94.19–94.92)

445

(716,894)

0.62 (0.59–0.65)

30

(716,926)

0.04 (0.03–0.05)

105

(716,928)

0.14 (0.13–0.16)

IMD quintile

1 (most deprived)

2,519,265

146 (100–176)

54

18

9

20

96,800 (927,354)

3.56

104.39 (104.05–104.72)

6890

(941,680)

7.32 (7.23–7.41)

460

(942,314)

0.49 (0.46–0.51)

1535 (942,355)

1.63 (1.59–1.67)

2

2,871,570

148 (101–178)

49

19

9

23

105,430 (1,074,696)

3.30

98.10 (97.80–98.4)

5860 (1,089,699)

5.38 (5.31–5.45)

410

(1,090,201)

0.38 (0.36–0.39)

1310 (1,090,236)

1.20 (1.17–1.23)

3

3,318,680

150 (109–180)

46

19

10

25

119,680 (1,274,137)

3.06

93.93 (93.66–94.2)

5595 (1,290,631)

4.33 (4.28–4.39)

390

(1,291,108)

0.30 (0.29–0.32)

1265 (1,291,143)

0.98 (0.95–1.01)

4

3,274,460

151 (113–181)

44

19

10

27

121,740 (1,272,731)

3.07

95.65 (95.38–95.93)

5210 (1,289,336)

4.04 (3.98–4.10)

380

(1,289,775)

0.29 (0.28–0.31)

1195 (1,289,806)

0.92 (0.90–0.95)

5 (least deprived)

3,115,025

152 (115–181)

41

19

11

29

120,245 (1,220,876)

2.98

98.49 (98.21–98.77)

4395 (1,237,218)

3.55 (3.50–3.61)

310

(1,237,580)

0.25 (0.24–0.26)

1020 (1,237,606)

0.82 (0.80–0.85)

Unknown

402,555

139

(87–173)

43

20

11

26

15,885 (142,704)

3.64

111.31 (110.43–112.19)

635

(144,971)

4.37 (4.20–4.55)

45

(145,029)

0.30 (0.25–0.35)

120

(145,032)

0.82 (0.75–0.90)

Region

London

891,660

129 (83–170)

40

20

12

28

21,970 (304,836)

4.19

72.07 (71.59–72.56)

1100

(308,097)

3.57 (3.46–3.68)

70

(308,184)

0.23 (0.21–0.26)

220

(308,190)

0.72 (0.67–0.77)

East of England

3,629,745

149 (104–179)

44

19

10

27

113,725 (1,380,061)

2.82

82.41 (82.16–82.65)

5105 (1,394,975)

3.66 (3.61–3.71)

410

(1,395,387)

0.29 (0.28–0.31)

1215 (1,395,416)

0.87 (0.84–0.89)

Region (continued)

East Midlands

2,702,030

150 (113–177)

48

19

10

24

108,255 (1,029,678)

3.47

105.14 (104.82–105.46)

5480 (1,044,633)

5.24 (5.17–5.32)

420

(1,045,072)

0.4 (0.38–0.42)

1215 (1,045,111)

1.16 (1.13–1.20)

North East

745,775

150 (115–181)

49

20

10

22

37,590 (289,494)

4.54

129.85 (129.18–130.52)

2170

(294,874)

7.36 (7.21–7.52)

140

(295,080)

0.47 (0.43–0.51)

495

(295,093)

1.68 (1.61–1.76)

North West

1,402,645

150 (115–180)

49

19

9

23

63,570 (541,871)

3.55

117.32 (116.85–117.78)

3445

(551,601)

6.24 (6.14–6.35)

265

(551,937)

0.48 (0.45–0.51)

780

(551,962)

1.42 (1.37–1.47)

South East

1,078,015

151 (108–180)

43

19

10

27

34,655 (417,431)

2.65

83.02 (82.58–83.47)

1715

(422,133)

4.06 (3.96–4.16)

110

(422,262)

0.27 (0.24–0.29)

370

(422,271)

0.88 (0.84–0.93)

South West

2,314,235

152 (111–180)

45

19

10

27

83,030 (896,729)

2.56

92.59 (92.27–92.91)

3460

(907,535)

3.81 (3.75–3.88)

185

(907,805)

0.20 (0.19–0.22)

760

(907,822)

0.83 (0.81–0.87)

West Midlands

548,600

149 (109–179)

52

18

9

22

21,340 (208,833)

3.69

102.19 (101.49–102.89)

1425

(212,055)

6.73 (6.55–6.91)

105

(212,201)

0.50 (0.45–0.55)

300

(212,211)

1.40 (1.33–1.49)

Yorkshire and The Humber

2,179,520

151 (111–181)

50

19

9

22

95,360 (840,635)

3.44

113.44 (113.07–113.81)

4670

(854,660)

5.46 (5.38–5.54)

280

(855,109)

0.33 (0.31–0.35)

1080 (855,132)

1.26 (1.22–1.30)

Unknown

9325

116 (67–164)

44

20

11

25

280

(2929)

3.85

96.27 (90.7–102.17)

15

(2969)

4.71 (3.61–6.16)

REDACTED

REDACTED

REDACTED

REDACTED

108,350

170 (154–186)

40

19

11

30

4890 (48,994)

2.62

99.79 (98.37–101.22)

280

(49,718)

5.59 (5.27–5.94)

15

(49744)

0.32 (0.25–0.41)

55

(49,746)

1.13 (0.98–1.29)

2,336,650

151 (110–178)

42

20

11

27

105,015 (893,242)

3.43

117.57 (117.21–117.93)

5900 (908,166)

6.5 (6.41–6.58)

425

(908,684)

0.47 (0.44–0.49)

1070 (908,724)

1.18 (1.14–1.21)

Blood pressure

Normal

3,190,995

137 (87–171)

41

20

11

28

136,085 (1,113,098)

3.44

122.26 (121.93–122.59)

4975 (1,132,373)

4.4 (4.33–4.46)

260

(1,132,792)

0.23 (0.22–0.24)

1185 (1,132,816)

1.05 (1.02–1.08)

Elevated/high

3,428,615

151 (122–179)

46

19

10

25

136,200 (1,347,493)

3.08

101.08 (100.8–101.35)

6565 (1,366,494)

4.8 (4.74–4.86)

480

(1,367,064)

0.35 (0.34–0.37)

1420 (1,367,106)

1.04 (1.01–1.07)

Unknown

8,881,945

152 (113–181)

48

19

10

24

307,500 (3,451,907)

3.09

89.08 (88.92–89.24)

17,040 (3,494,668)

4.88 (4.84–4.91)

1250 (3,496,150)

0.36 (0.35–0.37)

3830 (3,496,255)

1.10 (1.08–1.11)

891,935

180 (160–194)

45

17

9

28

25,625 (426,015)

2.08

60.15 (59.77–60.52)

4065

(429,286)

9.47 (9.32–9.62)

235

(429,659)

0.54 (0.51–0.58)

1305 (429,678)

3.04 (2.96–3.13)

Chronic kidney disease

Stage 3a

529,000

187 (173–201)

53

16

8

23

12,170 (268,808)

2.18

45.27 (44.87–45.69)

3370

(270,184)

12.48 (12.27–12.7)

190

(270,500)

0.70 (0.65–0.75)

1080 (270,514)

4.00 (3.88–4.12)

Stage 3b

206,450

192 (178–205)

52

14

7

27

4450 (107,113)

2.16

41.56 (40.95–42.19)

2105

(107,527)

19.59 (19.16–20.02)

95

(107,716)

0.89 (0.80–0.99)

795

(107,722)

7.39 (7.13–7.66)

Stage 4

51,210

191 (174–204)

47

13

8

33

1280 (25,907)

2.19

49.41 (48.05–50.81)

780

(26,000)

29.92 (28.87–31.01)

45

(26,064)

1.80 (1.56–2.09)

335

(26067)

12.85 (12.17–13.57)

Stage 5

5505

184 (164–200)

29

12

7

52

215

(2607)

1.75

82.47 (77.04–88.29)

130

(2627)

49.49 (45.33–54.02)

15

(2638)

5.31 (4.06–6.93)

45

(2638)

17.81 (15.4–20.61)

1,476,880

173 (157–191)

50

17

9

24

52,540 (683,694)

2.80

76.85 (76.51–77.18)

8645

(690,614)

12.52 (12.39–12.65)

740

(691,375)

1.07 (1.03–1.11)

2255 (691,436)

3.26 (3.19–3.33)

Dialysis

Previous kidney transplant

2345

183 (172–198)

25

15

9

51

155

(1143)

2.54

134.75 (124.32–146.06)

80

(1159)

70.73 (63.34–78.99)

25

(1165)

19.74 (16.03–24.32)

30

(1167)

25.71 (21.42–30.86)

No previous kidney transplant

10,505

180 (165–199)

22

9

7

63

535

(4982)

1.38

107.19 (102.65–111.93)

230

(5048)

45.36 (42.46–48.46)

25

(5068)

5.33 (4.40–6.46)

65

(5070)

13.22 (11.7–14.93)

1,745,845

180 (163–194)

48

17

9

26

51,745 (844,423)

2.38

61.28 (61.01–61.55)

10,590 (850,928)

12.45 (12.33–12.57)

650

(851,904)

0.76 (0.73–0.79)

3405 (851,951)

4.00 (3.93–4.07)

103,625

180 (166–193)

42

17

9

31

3725 (49,945)

2.91

74.56 (73.35–75.79)

1225

(50,386)

24.35 (23.67–25.06)

140

(50,481)

2.79 (2.57–3.04)

435

(50,492)

8.62 (8.21–9.04)

508,930

177 (159–191)

42

18

10

30

21,695 (237,016)

2.90

91.53 (90.91–92.15)

3950

(240,002)

16.45 (16.19–16.71)

450

(240,303)

1.88 (1.79–1.97)

1220 (240,339)

5.08 (4.94–5.23)

102,730

160 (146–177)

47

13

6

33

3230 (43,892)

1.78

73.57 (72.28–74.87)

315

(44,339)

7.06 (6.67–7.47)

30

(44,367)

0.65 (0.54–0.79)

50

(44371)

1.13 (0.98–1.30)

348,855

164 (144–182)

45

19

10

26

14,020 (151,587)

2.96

92.5 (91.72–93.29)

1620

(153,529)

10.55 (10.29–10.81)

130

(153,667)

0.85 (0.78–0.93)

360

(153,678)

2.36 (2.23–2.48)

874,635

176 (156–193)

45

16

8

30

28,410 (407,866)

2.29

69.66 (69.24–70.07)

5075

(411,606)

12.33 (12.16–12.51)

245

(412,073)

0.59 (0.55–0.63)

1685 (412,095)

4.09 (3.99–4.19)

581,930

180 (166–193)

50

17

9

25

16,785 (282,315)

2.53

59.45 (58.99–59.91)

4900

(284,321)

17.24 (16.99–17.49)

305

(284,751)

1.07 (1.01–1.14)

1515 (284,773)

5.32 (5.19–5.46)

181,865

159 (141–177)

51

15

8

26

5135 (76,184)

2.44

67.42 (66.48–68.36)

650

(76,905)

8.44 (8.11–8.78)

50

(76,961)

0.64 (0.55–0.73)

155

(76,967)

2.01 (1.86–2.18)

Transplant

Kidney (with previous dialysis)

5745

179 (172–191)

35

18

11

37

395

(2745)

4.83

143.51 (136.46–150.93)

210

(2787)

76.08 (71.03–81.49)

50

(2800)

17.86 (15.5–20.57)

55

(2804)

18.9 (16.47–21.68)

Kidney (without previous dialysis)

4515

179 (171–191)

36

19

11

35

280

(2160)

4.65

130.07 (122.54–138.06)

130

(2192)

58.4 (53.46–63.8)

25

(2202)

10.45 (8.48–12.87)

30

(2203)

14.52 (12.17–17.33)

Other organ

6780

178 (170–188)

35

18

11

36

405

(3202)

3.91

127.12 (120.97–133.58)

165

(3247)

50.2 (46.42–54.29)

40

(3259)

11.66 (9.91–13.71)

55

(3262)

16.86 (14.73–19.29)

Time since being fully vaccinated

0–4 weeks

331,535

16 (8–23)

63

19

7

11

1100 (13,569)

5.91

81.14 (78.73–83.62)

170

(13,580)

12.37 (11.45–13.36)

REDACTED

REDACTED

80

(13,582)

5.74 (5.13–6.43)

4–8 weeks

886,870

44 (37–51)

59

20

9

12

5135 (105,598)

7.09

48.65 (47.97–49.33)

335

(105,819)

3.15 (2.98–3.32)

20

(105,825)

0.18 (0.14–0.23)

125

(105,826)

1.17 (1.07–1.28)

8–12 weeks

1,430,095

69 (62–76)

50

22

11

17

19,585 (270,294)

6.32

72.45 (71.94–72.97)

610

(271,783)

2.25 (2.16–2.34)

55

(271,801)

0.20 (0.18–0.23)

270

(271,804)

0.99 (0.93–1.05)

12+ weeks

12,853,055

159 (135–184)

44

19

10

27

553,960 (5,523,038)

2.92

100.3 (100.16–100.43)

27,470 (5,602,353)

4.90 (4.87–4.93)

1910 (5,604,799)

0.34 (0.33–0.35)

5965 (5,604,967)

1.06 (1.05–1.08)

Time between vaccinations

6 weeks or less

499,185

185 (111–283)

39

18

11

31

17,760 (253,744)

2.43

69.99 (69.47–70.52)

1630

(256,550)

6.35 (6.20–6.51)

85

(256,777)

0.34 (0.03–0.38)

450

(256,788)

1.75 (1.67–1.83)

6–12 weeks

13,565,570

150 (108–179)

46

19

10

25

519,470 (5,161,343)

3.20

100.65 (100.51–100.79)

23,120 (5,233,675)

4.42 (4.39–4.45)

1635 (5,235,630)

0.31 (0.03–0.32)

5005 (5,235,771)

0.96 (0.94–0.97)

12 weeks or more

1,436,800

143 (100–170)

53

18

8

21

42,550 (497,411)

3.19

85.54 (85.13–85.96)

3830

(503,309)

7.61 (7.49–7.73)

270

(503,599)

0.53 (0.05–0.57)

980

(503,619)

1.95 (1.89–2.01)

Prior COVID-19

Between 1st and 2nd vaccination

191,320

65 (42–166)

48

19

9

24

1720 (49,491)

1.14

34.75 (33.93–35.6)

160

(49,786)

3.25 (3.01–3.52)

REDACTED

REDACTED

55

(49,815)

1.08 (0.95–1.24)

Before 1st vaccination

926,960

138 (88–170)

42

19

10

29

8895 (326,947)

1.19

27.21 (26.92–27.5)

755

(328,374)

2.31 (2.22–2.39)

30 (328,454)

0.09 (0.08–0.11)

200

(328,458)

0.61 (0.57-0.66)