Fig. 2

Percent change in shingles cases compared to no vaccination, using a 20 year protection from chickenpox vaccination. Top row (a–d) simulations provided 5 years of immunity from shingles vaccination and bottom row (e–h) simulations provided lifetime immunity from shingles vaccination. Each column represents the number of years after vaccine introduction: a and e 25 years, b and f 50 years, c and g 75 years, and d and h 100 years. Shingles and chickenpox vaccine coverage (%) are shown on the x- and y-axes. Color scale on the right indicates the largest decrease in shingles cases can be seen in dark blue, while the largest increase in shingles cases can be seen in red