Fig. 4

Microsimulation model. a 1-year probability of first CVD event. b Transition to post-CVD event occurring after one cycle (1 year) with a probability of 100% (tunnel state). c CVD relapse during the first year. d 1-year probabilities of subsequent CVD events (stroke relapse after first year, post-stroke to CHD, CHD relapse after first year, and post-CHD to stroke). e Transition to death (absorbing state). CVD, cardiovascular disease; CHD, coronary heart disease