Table 2 Net reclassification improvement of prediction models

Preoperative CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model vs preoperative CEA model

Percentage of individuals for whom the preoperative CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model estimates a higher risk than the preoperative CEA model

Percentage of individuals for whom the preoperative CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model estimates a lower risk than the preoperative CEA model

Overall net reclassification improvement (95% confidence interval)

P for net reclassification improvement

 24 months

  Events

64.29%

35.71%

34.05% (3.29%, 64.81%)

0.015

  Non-events

47.26%

52.74%

 36 months

  Events

59.57%

40.43%

33.53% (12.28%, 54.78%)

0.001

  Non-events

42.81%

57.19%

 48 months

  Events

60.47%

39.53%

36.04% (17.18%, 54.90%)

< 0.001

  Non-events

42.45%

57.55%

 60 months

  Events

57.62%

42.38%

21.47% (2.95%, 39.99%)

0.012

  Non-events

46.88%

53.12%

Longitudinal CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model vs preoperative CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model

Percentage of individuals for whom the longitudinal CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model estimates a higher risk than the preoperative CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model

Percentage of individuals for whom the longitudinal CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model estimates a lower risk than the preoperative CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model

Overall net reclassification improvement (95% confidence interval)

P for net reclassification improvement

 24 months

  Events

73.81%

26.19%

64.87% (34.11%, 95.63%)

< 0.001

  Non-events

41.37%

58.63%

 36 months

  Events

62.77%

37.23%

40.81% (19.56%, 62.06%)

< 0.001

  Non-events

42.36%

57.64%

 48 months

  Events

60.47%

39.53%

30.30% (11.44%, 49.16%)

0.001

  Non-events

45.32%

54.68%

 60 months

  Events

56.95%

43.05%

24.76% (6.24%, 43.28%)

0.004

  Non-events

44.57%

55.43%