Prediction models of colorectal cancer prognosis incorporating perioperative longitudinal serum tumor markers: a retrospective longitudinal cohort study

Table 3 Integrated discrimination improvement of prediction models

Preoperative CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model vs preoperative CEA model
	Mean predicted probability of preoperative CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model	Mean predicted probability of preoperative CEA model	Overall integrated discrimination improvement (95% confidence interval)	P for integrated discrimination improvement
24 months
Events	0.072	0.061	0.011 (0.001, 0.021)	0.016
Non-events	0.031	0.031	0.011 (0.001, 0.021)	0.016
36 months
Events	0.159	0.143	0.017 (0.005, 0.029)	0.003
Non-events	0.074	0.074	0.017 (0.005, 0.029)	0.003
48 months
Events	0.219	0.197	0.024 (0.009, 0.038)	0.001
Non-events	0.109	0.111	0.024 (0.009, 0.038)	0.001
60 months
Events	0.257	0.237	0.020 (0.006, 0.035)	0.004
Non-events	0.142	0.143	0.020 (0.006, 0.035)	0.004
Longitudinal CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model vs preoperative CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model
	Mean predicted probability of longitudinal CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model	Mean predicted probability of preoperative CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model	Overall integrated discrimination improvement (95% confidence interval)	P for integrated discrimination improvement
24 months
Events	0.132	0.072	0.062 (0.038, 0.085)	< 0.001
Non-events	0.029	0.031	0.062 (0.038, 0.085)	< 0.001
36 months
Events	0.226	0.159	0.071 (0.045, 0.098)	< 0.001
Non-events	0.069	0.074	0.071 (0.045, 0.098)	< 0.001
48 months
Events	0.267	0.219	0.053 (0.030, 0.076)	< 0.001
Non-events	0.105	0.109	0.053 (0.030, 0.076)	< 0.001
60 months
Events	0.292	0.257	0.040 (0.018, 0.061)	< 0.001
Non-events	0.137	0.142	0.040 (0.018, 0.061)	< 0.001

Preoperative CEA model included age and sex, primary site, surgical approach, tumor differentiation, histological type, pathology stage, lymph node yield, adjuvant chemotherapy, mucinous (colloid) type, lymphovascular invasion and perineural invasion, and preoperative CEA for prediction. Preoperative CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model included age and sex, primary site, surgical approach, tumor differentiation, histological type, pathology stage, lymph node yield, adjuvant chemotherapy, mucinous (colloid) type, lymphovascular invasion and perineural invasion, and preoperative CEA for prediction. Longitudinal CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model further included preoperative CA19-9 and CA125 in addition to variables in preoperative CEA&CA19-9&CA125 model

ISSN: 1741-7015