Model-based evaluation of admission screening strategies for the detection and control of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales in the English hospital setting

Table 3 Test performance of the screening test pathway segments, for Toolkit and alternative pathways

	Invariant^a			Dynamic^b
				Low-prevalence area			High-prevalence area
Presumptive pathway	3 swabs (Toolkit)	2 swabs	1 swab	3 swabs (Toolkit)	2 swabs	1 swab	3 swabs (Toolkit)	2 swabs	1 swab
Presumptive determination test(s) outcome
Sensitivity	99.6	97.4	83.9	100.0	100.0	81.2	100.0	100.0	81.2
Specificity	77.1	84.1	91.7	72.4	83.2	93.4	72.4	83.5	93.3
PPV	-	-	-	6.6	8.3	11.8	0.9	1.1	16.0
NPV	-	-	-	100.0	100.0	99.8	100.0	100.0	100.0
Confirmation test outcome (all confirmation tests, including those prompted by clinical or contract tracing positive results)
Sensitivity	96.6	96.6	96.6	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Specificity	98.6	98.6	98.6	90.8	90.0	91.0	92.9	93.2	94.7
PPV	-	-	-	44.7	46.7	60.0	14.1	17.4	31.2
NPV	-	-	-	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

All values based on colonisation status at admission for constant denominator
^aInvariant assumes: colonisation status does not change during stay, patients do not leave the hospital before determination complete
^bDynamic assumes: colonisation status may change during stay (status when each sample is taken is used in the stochastically simulated test result), patients may leave the hospital before determination from that pathway segment is complete (and removed from analysis sample)

ISSN: 1741-7015