A mathematical model of Marburg virus disease outbreaks and the potential role of vaccination in control

Qian, George Y.; Edmunds, W. John; Bausch, Daniel G.; Jombart, Thibaut

doi:10.1186/s12916-023-03108-x

Table 4 Proportion of terminated outbreaks for different vaccination schemes. The numbers in parentheses indicate the 95% CIs of this proportion, from bootstrapped sampling

From: A mathematical model of Marburg virus disease outbreaks and the potential role of vaccination in control

Scheme	No vaccination	Prophylactic mass	Prophylactic targeted	Reactive mass	Reactive targeted	Ring	Ring and reactive targeted
Baseline (Low/High rate of introductions)	0.92 (0.91–0.93)	0.99 (0.99–0.99)	0.98 (0.97–0.98)	0.97 (0.97–0.98)	0.93 (0.92–0.94)	0.98 (0.98–0.98)	0.99 (0.98–0.99)
Baseline (Low/High rate of introductions)	0.68 (0.67–0.69)	0.90 (0.90–0.91)	0.89 (0.88–0.90)	0.82 (0.81–0.83)	0.79 (0.78–0.81)	0.76 (0.75–0.77)	0.88 (0.87–0.89)
Reduced time from reactive vaccination to infective contact (Low/High rate of introductions)	0.92 (0.91–0.93)	0.99 (0.98–0.99)	0.98 (0.97–0.98)	0.96 (0.95–0.97)	0.93 (0.92–0.93)	0.94 ( 0.93–0.94)	0.97 (0.97–0.98)
	0.68 (0.67–0.69)	0.90 (0.90–0.91)	0.89 (0.88–0.90)	0.77 (0.76–0.78)	0.76 (0.75–0.76)	0.74 (0.73–0.75)	0.81 (0.81–0.82)
Lower vaccination coverage (Low/High rate of introductions)	0.92 (0.91–0.93)	0.97 (0.97–0.98)	0.96 (0.95–0.96)	0.95 (0.95–0.96)	0.94 (0.93–0.94)	0.96 (0.95–0.96)	0.97 (0.97–0.98)
	0.68 (0.67–0.69)	0.82 (0.81–0.83)	0.84 (0.83–0.85)	0.77 (0.76–0.78)	0.75 (0.73–0.76)	0.75 (0.74–0.76)	0.81 (0.80–0.82)
Higher vaccination coverage (Low/High rate of introductions)	0.92 (0.91–0.93)	1.00 (1.00–1.00)	0.99 (0.97–1.00)	0.99 (0.98–0.99)	0.93 (0.93–0.94)	0.98 (0.98–0.98)	1.00 (1.00–1.00)
	0.68 (0.67–0.69)	0.97 (0.97–0.98)	0.95 (0.95–0.96)	0.89 (0.88–0.90)	0.82 (0.81–0.83)	0.76 (0.75–0.77)	0.93 (0.93–0.94)
Later date of intervention (Low/High rate of introductions)	0.88 (0.86–0.88)	0.99 (0.99–0.99)	0.96 (0.95–0.96)	0.91 (0.90–0.92)	0.88 (0.87–0.89)	0.91 (0.90–0.92)	0.92 (0.91–0.92)
	0.64 (0.63–0.65)	0.91 (0.90–0.91)	0.87 (0.86–0.88)	0.78 (0.77–0.79)	0.75 (0.74–0.76)	0.71 (0.70–0.73)	0.82 (0.81–0.83)
Vaccine protects against disease only (Low/High rate of introductions)	0.92 (0.91–0.93)	0.92 (0.91–0.93)	0.92 (0.91–0.93)	0.92 (0.91–0.93)	0.92 (0.91–0.93)	0.92 (0.91–0.93)	0.92 (0.91–0.93)
	0.68 (0.67–0.69)	0.68 (0.67–0.69)	0.68 (0.67–0.69)	0.68 (0.67–0.69)	0.68 (0.67–0.69)	0.68 (0.67–0.69)	0.68 (0.67–0.69)
Reduced introduction rate (by 1 order of magnitude)	0.93 (0.93–0.94)	1.00 (0.99–1.00)	0.98 (0.98–0.99)	0.98 (0.98–0.99)	0.94 (0.93–0.95)	0.99 (0.99–0.99)	0.99 (0.99–0.99)
Reduced introduction rate (by 1 order of magnitude)	0.88 (0.87–0.89)	0.98 (0.98–0.99)	0.96 (0.96–0.97)	0.96 (0.96–0.97)	0.92 (0.92–0.93))	0.96 (0.96–0.97)	0.98 (0.97–0.98)
Reduced introduction rate (by 2 orders of magnitude)	0.93 (0.93–0.94)	1.00 (0.99–1.00)	0.98 (0.98–0.99)	0.98 (0.98–0.99)	0.94 (0.93–0.95)	0.99 (0.99–0.99)	0.99 (0.99–0.99)
Reduced introduction rate (by 2 orders of magnitude)	0.93 (0.93–0.94)	1.00 (0.99–1.00)	0.98 (0.98–0.99)	0.98 (0.97–0.98)	0.94 (0.93–0.94)	0.99 (0.99–0.99)	0.99 (0.99–0.99)

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