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Table 4 Benefits and harms of the screening scenarios

From: Risk-based lung cancer screening in heavy smokers: a benefit–harm and cost-effectiveness modeling study

Strategy

Number of LDCT screens (per 100,000 people)

Lung cancer deaths averted (per 100,000 people)†

Lung cancer mortality reduction (%)

Average number of screens per lung cancer death averted

Incremental life years gained (per 100,000 people)‡

Average number of screens per life years gained

Number of over-diagnosed lung cancers (per 100,000 people)

Number of radiation-related lung cancer (per 100,000 people)

Number of false-positive lung cancers (per 100,000 people)

H1-MH1-LM1-L1 (status quo strategy)

1,071,810

770

35.6

1392

13,949

77

38

1.09

8373

H1-MH1-LM1-L2

926,440

733

33.9

1263

13,110

71

33

0.94

7235

H1-MH1-LM1-L3

848,420

698

32.3

1216

12,291

69

30

0.87

6624

H1-MH1-LM1-Lone-off

702,440

559

25.9

1257

9130

77

25

0.71

5488

H1-MH1-LM1-Lnone

677,630

552

25.5

1228

8960

76

24

0.70

5293

H1-MH1-LM2-L2‡

811,880

707

32.7

1148

12,599

64

30

0.86

6337

H1-MH1-LM2-L3

733,860

672

31.1

1093

11,779

62

28

0.79

5727

H1-MH1-LM2-Lone-off

587,880

533

24.6

1103

8608

68

22

0.63

4591

H1-MH1-LM2-Lnone

563,070

526

24.3

1071

8439

67

22

0.63

4396

H1-MH1-LM3-L3

673,650

648

30.0

1039

11,320

60

26

0.75

5256

H1-MH1-LM3-Lone-off

527,670

510

23.6

1035

8158

65

21

0.59

4119

H1-MH1-LM3-Lnone

502,860

502

23.2

1001

7989

63

20

0.59

3925

H1-MH1-LMone-off-Lone-off

426,400

434

20.1

981

6714

64

18

0.52

3329

H1-MH1-LMone-off-Lnone

401,590

427

19.8

940

6544

61

18

0.52

3135

H1-MH1-LMnone-Lnone

377,890

424

19.6

892

6474

58

18

0.51

2949

H1-MH2-LM2-L2‡

729,660

665

30.8

1097

11,893

61

26

0.75

5694

H1-MH2-LM2-L3

651,640

629

29.1

1035

11,074

59

24

0.68

5083

H1-MH2-LM2-Lone-off

505,670

491

22.7

1030

7903

64

18

0.52

3947

H1-MH2-LM2-Lnone

480,860

483

22.4

995

7733

62

18

0.51

3753

H1-MH2-LM3-L3‡

591,440

606

28.0

976

10,614

56

22

0.64

4612

H1-MH2-LM3-Lone-off

445,460

467

21.6

953

7453

60

17

0.48

3476

H1-MH2-LM3-Lnone

420,650

460

21.3

914

7284

58

16

0.47

3282

H1-MH2-LMone-off-Lone-off

344,180

392

18.1

877

6008

57

14

0.41

2685

H1-MH2-LMone-off-Lnone

319,380

385

17.8

830

5839

55

14

0.40

2491

H1-MH2-LMnone-Lnone‡

295,680

382

17.7

775

5769

51

14

0.40

2305

H1-MH3-LM3-L3‡

549,100

569

26.3

966

9999

55

20

0.58

4281

H1-MH3-LM3-Lone-off

403,120

430

19.9

938

6838

59

15

0.42

3145

H1-MH3-LM3-Lnone

378,320

423

19.5

895

6669

57

14

0.41

2951

H1-MH3-LMone-off-Lone-off

301,850

355

16.4

851

5393

56

12

0.35

2354

H1-MH3-LMone-off-Lnone

277,050

347

16.1

797

5224

53

12

0.34

2160

H1-MH3-LMnone-Lnone‡

253,350

344

15.9

736

5154

49

12

0.34

1975

H1-MHone-off-LMone-off-Lone-off

221,070

203

9.4

1089

2962

75

8

0.23

1727

H1-MHone-off-LMone-off-Lnone

196,260

196

9.1

1003

2693

73

8

0.22

1533

H1-MHone-off-LMnone-Lnone

172,560

192

8.9

897

2623

66

8

0.21

1347

H1-MHnone-LMnone-Lnone

148,000

173

8.0

854

2301

64

7

0.19

1155

  1. ‡These strategies comprised the cost-effectiveness efficiency frontier
  2. †Number of lung cancer deaths per 100,000 people without screening: 2162
  3. ‡Life years per person without screening: 18.305
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BMC Medicine

ISSN: 1741-7015

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